टॉमी

स्वछंदता के आकाश में उन्मुक्त भाव से विचरण करने वाले उस प्राणी का ह्रदय आज उद्विग्न था एवं मन अशांत।आज उसके व्यवहार में उच्छृंखलता नहीं अपितु निष्क्रियता का भाव सहज नज़र आ रहा था। रह रह कर वह कर्राह रहा था और इस पीड़ा का अनुभव करके मैं द्रवीभूत हो उठता था। आज मेरे मन में एक अजीब सी व्यग्रता थी...अजीब सा कौतुहल था। ऐसा प्रतीत हो रहा था मानो प्रकृति किसी अनहोनी का संकेत दे रही हो!

टॉमी...हाँ यही नाम दिया था हमने उसे। ठीक एक साल पहले हमारे घर के गलियारे में उसका जन्म हुआ था।उसके मुखमंडल पर शिशु-सी मासूमियत थी, जो किसी पाषाण ह्रदय को भी पिघलाने में सक्षम थी।पानी से भरी विस्मयपूर्ण आँखें ऐसी प्रतीत होती थीं मानो अभी छलक पड़ेंगी।भूरे-सफ़ेद चित्तकबरे रंग के उस पिल्ले को हमने अपने पास रखने का निर्णय लिया।शैशवावस्था में अमृत रूपी मातृत्व स्नेह से दूर उस जीव ने मानव सान्निध्य में अपने जीवन का अध्याय आरम्भ किया।

मार्च के उन दिनों मैं बारहवीं बोर्ड की परीक्षा दे रहा था। व्यस्तता एवं मानसिक ऊहापोह के मध्य भी मैं टॉमी के साथ कुछ समय व्यतीत कर ही लेता था। उसे दूध के साथ बिस्कुट एवं रोटी खूब भाता था। चावल उसे पसंद न था। दूध मिश्रित चावल से भी वह दूध चाट कर चावल अलग कर देता था। हम उसे प्रायः बांध कर रखते थे, अन्यथा गेट के बाहर वह ऐसे भागता जैसे स्कूल की आखिरी बेला के उपरान्त छुट्टी होने पर बच्चे स्वतंत्रता की ताजगी में सांस लेते हैं। गेट के बाहर दूसरे बड़े कुत्तों का डर भी था। अतः जब भी वह बाहर निकलता, उसके पीछे मैं या मेरे घर से कोई ज़रूर जाता और उसे स्नेहपूर्वक बुलाता। बुलाने पर वह फर्राटेदार गति से हमारी ओर आता और हमसे क्रीड़ा करना चाहता। हमारी छत्रछाया में वह पल्लवित, पुष्पित होने लगा और समय के परिप्रेक्ष्य में अनुशासित एवं व्यवहारकुशल बन गया। पहले की अपेक्षा उसके व्यवहार में हमारी अवहेलना नदारद हो गई। परिणामस्वरूप हमारा भावात्मक लगाव प्रगाढ़ होने लगा। जुलाई में मैं आगे की पढाई के लिए बाहर चला गया। बाद में घर फ़ोन किया तो ज्ञात हुआ कि जिस दिन मैं घर से निकला, उस दिन वह अत्यंत दुखी था.....शांत था......मानो उसके चेहरे की कांति शून्यता के तमस में विलुप्त हो गयी हो।

साल भर के लम्बे अंतराल के पश्चात मैं ग्रीष्मावकाश में घर आया। टॉमी एक वर्ष का हो गया था। उसके व्यवहार में परिपक्वता थी। हमारे संसर्ग में रहते-रहते वह प्राणी विवेकशील बन गया था। उसके व्यक्तित्व की एक बात बड़ी निराली थी। पता नहीं ऐसी क्या ख़ास बात थी कि दूसरे कुत्ते भी उसकी ओर खींचे चले आते थे। किसी अनजान शख्स के पदचाप को सुन वह कोमल जीव ऐसे भौंकता मानो हमारे घर की निगरानी का भार उसके कन्धों पर हो। छत से आवाज़ देने पर वह सीढियों से ऐसे ऊपर चढ़ता मानो कोई किला फतह करना चाहता हो! जनसंकुलता में नहीं पले-बढ़े होने के कारण बाकी कुत्ते अनुशासनहीनता का अनूठा उदाहरण प्रस्तुत करते हैं। पर टॉमी इसके विपरीत था। खाद्य देने पर किसी अनुशासित बच्चे की भांति पंक्तिबद्ध ढंग से खड़े हो जाता। मई की भीषण गर्मी के मध्य वह अपने जीभ को मुँह से बाहर ऐसे निकाले रहता मानो स्वयं महाकाली की रक्त रंजित जिह्वा हो! उसे सहलाने पर किसी शिशु की तरह मुझसे लिपट जाता। डांटने पर उसकी आँखें अपराधबोध से परिपूर्ण हो जाती। उसे हम अकसर नहलाया भी करते थे। उस स्थिति में शायद वह असीम आनंद की अनुभूति करता था, क्योंकि नहलाने की प्रक्रिया संपन्न होने तक वह पूर्णतः शांत रहता। फिर धूप में ही सो जाया करता। कभी चोट लगने पर हम उसे एंटीसेप्टिक क्रीम लगा दिया करते, जिससे उसे अत्यंत राहत महसूस होती।

कालचक्र गतिशील है। जिस प्रकार हर रोज़ प्रातःकाल की मनोरम किरणों में आनेवाली रात्रि की कालिमा निहित होती है, ठीक उसी प्रकार ये सुखामोद वक्त भी अपने आखिरी पड़ाव पर था। जून की चिलचिलाती गर्मी में एक दिन अचानक टॉमी कर्राह उठा। उसके पेट में पीड़ा हो रही थी। हमने घरेलु उपचार करने की कोशिश की। पर उसका दर्द कम न हुआ। पहली रात वह दर्द की वजह से सो न सका। अगले दिन से खाना भी बंद कर दिया। आहार विहीन उसका देह शिथिल पड़ गया। दर्द भी बढ़ता चला गया। हमने डॉक्टर को बुलाया। उन्होंने कहा कि इन्फेक्शन हो गया है। दो इंजेक्शन दिए और कुछ दवाइयां दी। पर फिर भी उसका दर्द कम न हो सका। रविवार की सुबह मैंने उसे बिस्कुट खिलाने की कोशिश की, थोड़ा खाया भी। पर उसे सहसा देखकर मैं भयाक्रांत से भर उठा। कारण कि कमजोरी की वजह से वह मुझे मरणासन्न प्रतीत होने लगा। पूरे दिन कुछ नहीं खाया। सिर्फ जल ग्रहण करता रहा। दोपहर को अचेत हो गया और लम्बी-लम्बी सांसें लेने लगा। फिर भी हम उसे नियमित अंतराल पर पानी पिलाते रहे। पर शायद नियति का लिखा कोई नहीं टाल सकता। मृत्यु उसका स्पर्श करने को लालायित थी। संध्या करीब छः बजे के आसपास उसकी आत्मा शून्य में विलीन हो गयी। एक सजीव शरीर पानी के बुलबुले की भांति क्षणभंगुर हो गया। 

ह्रदय में उमड़ी पीड़ा नेत्रों से अश्रु के रूप में प्रवाहित होने लगी। मेरा शरीर चेतनाशून्य हो गया, जड़ हो गया। उसकी छवि मेरे मानस पटल पर सदा-सदा के लिए अंकित हो गयी। ऐसा पहली बार था जब मुझे विरक्ति का एहसास हुआ। वेदना के इस बवंडर के बीच माँ ने मुझे एक सीख दी। वह ये कि जिस भी व्यक्ति/वस्तु/प्राणी से मनुष्य को अत्यधिक लगाव होता है, प्रकृति उसे विरक्ति का पाठ अवश्य पढ़ाती है! 

Asceticism amidst Modernism

"Modernism" in the guise of progressivism is no less than a mockery!! It is one of the two extremes of human life, the other one being "asceticism." India is the cradle of ancient civlisation. The land has nurtured Buddhism and Jainism to full fledged form. In history, manifestations of ascetic life is evident from the Buddhist philosophy of "Ashtangika Marg" and practice of intense penance in Jainism. But how far is it relevant in the present topsy-turvy world where modernism is a buzzword and asceticism has turned obsolete.

Today, human being is residing on the edge where rationalism has been stifled by the hands of materialism. The narrow pursuit of modernism has led to erosion of ethics. Modernisation implies a positive transformation in physical and mental well-being. And this is a matter of choice. Unfortunately, we take pride in having embraced the former one. The dawn of 21st century has blown the trumpet of digitisation which echoes in every nook and corner of the world. Under the perfidious clutch of westernisation we are cloistered in virtual walls of modernity devoid of any radical change in mental outlook. Each individual is imitating others. Thus, deepening the ethical niche.

But, is the archaic concept of asceticism a panacea to curb this malady? Certainly not. Then is the "middle path" as propounded by Lord Buddha a solution? No. The reason being nobody is magnanimous enough to renounce his belongings as the incessant lust for money has gripped us in a complex web of desires. Then what asceticism calls for?? Well, my take is slightly different from its definition in oxford dictionary. When we delve deeper into the virtues of an "ascetic", we would find that "simplicity of thoughts" is the path to eternal bliss. By simplicity, I mean a mind free from evil thoughts. A mind brimming with optimism. A mind that lays emphasis on introspection rather than blaming existing circumstances or others. A mind that harbours robust hope and infuses renewed vigour and vitality into others. A mind which never looks down upon others out of superiority complex or humiliates others. A mind full of reverence for all. A mind which maintains its stability amidst vicissitudes of life. A calm and composed mind imparting serenity to the soul. A mind which eschews exaggeration and remains natural. A mind which is not tarnished by avarice. A mind capable of moulding an individual's character into brightest form possible. A mind which is directed towards achievement of cherished goals.It is worth mentioning that above characteristics of mind is the most ideal which has potential to take an individual to zenith of glory.

To sum up, asceticism is not a shallow concept of getting converted into a monk or a sage, rather, it is the enlightment of soul. The path is certainly not a cakewalk but has potential to help human beings overcome the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune. Human life can regain its lustre which is presently corroded by grief and agony. It is upto us which "path" we choose- the easy one or the right one and that will differentiate us from others. The following excerpt from poem "The Road not taken" by Robert Frost exemplifies this fact:

"Two roads diverged in yellow wood,
and I took the path less travelled by
and that has made all the difference."

Venezuela and Zimbabwe- Enormity of economic crisis

Recently, two nations of the world- Zimbabwe and Venezuela were ravaged by another wave of economic crisis-"hyperinflation." Hyperinflation implies skyrocketing prices of commodities in short span of time. Triggered by fragile economic policies of government, the nations were soon plunged into economic turmoil. Lets have a glance at the root cause of this menace.

Venezuela: A Latin American country bestowed with rich repositories of crude oil reserves. It generated nearly 96% of its revenue from crude oil exports. The revenue so earned was used for the import of essential commodities like food and medicines. In light of deteriorating crude oil prices in the international market, the economy began to crumble. Bereft of any other source of revenue to finance its import expenditure coupled with mounting fiscal deficit, there was dearth of commodities in the market. Consequently, prices of goods began to soar. Black marketing and hoarding fanned the flames of inflation.The enormity of the situation was so high that one million was required to buy a single loaf of bread!! Thus, epitomizing the advent of hyperinflation in the economy. The country soon spiraled into one of the worst economic crisis of all times.
The repercussions were marked by widespread hunger leading to an upward trend in crime and social unrest. The perpetrators of violence finally paved way for mass emigration. Thus, common people were the victims of callousness of its government and faced the brunt of this economic disaster. The major lacuna of government policy was lack of investment in alternative sources of revenue. Relying solely on crude oil exports, being unaware of the volatility of this sector led to ultimate collapse.

Zimbabwe: A poor country in Africa hit hard by the idiosyncrasies of political drama. The evidence of immature government is vividly depicted through amateurish policy of indiscriminate note printing to finance its populist measures. It increased subsidies in order to emancipate impoverished sections, provided money free of cost to the youth rattled by rampant unemployment and infused more and more capital in banks which were staggering with poor credit and bank run. All these were financed by deliberate printing of currency. Poor visualization of the aftermath of unprecedented money supply in the economy led to emergence of hyperinflation.
More money supply triggers more demand for goods. One point which must be reckoned is that economy of Zimbabwe was reeling with adverse agrarian and industrial productivity coupled with poor investment by government to boost these sectors. Thus, more money in hands for same quantity of goods propels inflation. The inflation had reached its pinnacle to an unbelievable trillion times!!! Imagine people carrying trucks of currency symbolizing affluence getting infinitesimal amount of goods in return. Thus, an erosion of currency value. The government later tried its best so that the situation ebbed such as endorsement of new currency and devaluation of currency. But, all these steps proved abortive. The politico-economic turmoil resulted in nationwide pandemonium leading to complete derailment of economy.

The resurgence of economic crisis is the consequence of  lackadaisical fiscal and monetary policies in an economy. Sloppy measures have no space amidst economic vagaries of modern age. Slight recklessness in policy formulation can have indelible impact on socio-economic sphere of a country which is well elucidated in the above two instances. 

Deliberate fiscal measures- Tale of two economies

In recent past, unconventional methods adopted by Central Banks of two major economies of the world- Japan and China brought to the limelight a new face of monetary policy. The "negative interest rate policy of Japan" and "currency devaluation by China" were meant to mitigate the phase of prevailing economic stagnation. Lets have a bird's eye view of these policies.

Negative interest rate policy: The interest rate in an economy is decided by Central Bank. It varies from time to time based on the needs of economy. For example, in India, RBI has been entrusted with the responsibility of deciding interest rate or commonly known as repo rate through its bi-monthly monetary policy review. Repo rate implies the interest rate at which commercial banks borrow from RBI to meet their liquidity requirements. It is an important monetary tool used by central banks to control lending activities by commercial banks and regulate inflation. Conventionally, this rate is positive which is quite obvious, since borrowers must pay certain interest to creditors. So far all good. Imagine a situation when the interest rate is negative!! What does that mean?? Well, it simply means that borrowers get paid by creditors as an incentive to borrow further and depositors are deprived of interest they have been paid so far on savings account, instead they have to pay for their deposits. Cheaper credits and expensive deposits!!!
Japanese economy was grappling with sluggish growth rate due to poor demand of goods, low inflation rate, rampant unemployment which compelled Bank of Japan to take such course of action. The idea was to channelise the repositories of wealth which had been amassed by public in savings bank account towards healthy investments thus, triggering economic growth. More investment means enhanced production of goods leading to greater demands for labour implying more employment. More employment implies more wages leading to more demand of goods giving rise to inflation and further boosting industrial production. And ,the cycle continues.
Here, two points must be reckoned, first, inflation is not always bad for an economy. It has a brighter side also. Its presence reflects that an economy is flourishing and not lying dormant or stagnant. And, second that sometimes below zero interest rate can lead to "bank run" due to dearth of liquidity.
Although, the central bank explored new strategy to counter the ineffectiveness of conventional measures, not everything worked as anticipated. Initially, the situation showed some signs of abatement but present manifestations portray a grim picture.

Devaluation of currency:Liberalisation, which has transformed this world into a global village, is a precursor to unprecedented growth of international trade.Organisations such as WTO, formerly known as GATT have further glorified it by encouraging free and fair trade. Foreign trade involves import or export of goods in exchange of currencies. In order to bring homogeneity in the system, dollar has been chosen as standard currency. Imported goods are paid in dollars. Dollar is bought from the Central Bank in exchange of local currency (yuan/ renminbi, considering the case of China). The price of dollar is determined by dollar-yuan exchange rate. The exchange rate is inturn, regulated by market forces of demand and supply or the so called invisible hand as proposed by Adam Smith- Father of Economics. In case of rise in imports, demand for dollars increases. As demand increases, more yuan is required to buy a dollar. In other words, dollar becomes expensive, its value increases or to be precise it "appreciates". Simultaneously, yuan "depreciates". This makes imports expensive but boosts exports!! How?? The goods in foreign markets become cheap as one dollar can now buy more quantity of goods.Thus, exports bring in more dollars and forex reserves of the country show a healthy trend. This emulates the trade deficit and current account deficit of a country.
Well, the People's Bank of China deliberately interfered with the exchange rate and "devalued" yuan with respect to dollar. As explained above, devaluation was done in order to boost export of Chinese goods in the international markets. However, cases may arise when exports get squeezed under poor demand of goods in the international arena. In short run, things might appear rosy but in the long run, expensive imports can lead to "forex crisis" thus, sabotaging the economy.

Central bank is regarded as the pillar of economy shouldered with twin responsibilities of maintaining economic robustness and dissipating crisis. Its prompt and cognitive actions prevent economic evanescence thus imparting global competitiveness and exuberance to the economy. In the above two cases, the interplay of multiple factors culminated in futility of the policies but at the same time added a new dimension to the geopolitical canvas of South-east Asia!!

कच्चे तेल की कीमत में वृद्धि एवं भारतीय रुपये में गिरावट- एक विवेचना

वस्तुओं का विनिमय किसी भी अर्थव्यवस्था का मूलभूत आधार है। वर्तमान युग में औद्योगिकीकरण एवं वैश्वीकरण ने मानव आवश्यकताओं को और अधिक विस्तृत कर दिया है। उदारीकरण ने विपणन को प्रोत्साहित किया, जिससे वस्तुओं का क्रय-विक्रय किसी देश की सीमा तक भर संकुचित न रह गया। भारत भी इसके प्रभाव से परे नहीं है। कच्चे तेल का आयात, भारतीय अर्थव्यवस्था को सुचारु ढंग से चलाने हेतु अत्यंत आवश्यक है। कारण कि अर्थव्यवस्था का कोई भी ऐसा क्षेत्र नहीं जो ईंधन रहित हो। 

कारण:-

अंतर्राष्ट्रीय बाज़ार में वस्तुओं के विनिमय के लिए "डॉलर" को मानक मुद्रा के रूप में चयन किया गया है। अर्थात  किसी भी विदेशी वस्तु के आयात के लिए व्यापारियों के पास पर्याप्त "डॉलर" राशि होनी चाहिए। भारत में यह डॉलर उन्हें भारतीय रिज़र्व बैंक के विदेशी मुद्रा कोष से प्राप्त होता है। भारतीय रिज़र्व बैंक व्यापारियों को वर्तमान डॉलर-रुपये  विनिमय दर के अनुसार रुपये के बदले वांछित डॉलर प्रदान करती है। विनिमय दर मुद्रा की माँग-आपूर्ति पर निर्भर करता है। भारतीय रिज़र्व बैंक अथवा सरकार का हस्तक्षेप केवल विषम परिस्थितियों में ही होता है, जिसमें मुद्रा की कीमत में अप्रत्याशित वृद्धि या कमी होती है। इसका तात्पर्य यह है कि यदि किसी कारणवश डॉलर या रुपये की मांग में वृद्धि हुई, तो उस मुद्रा की कीमत में बढ़ोतरी होगी और वह बाज़ार में दूसरी मुद्रा के मुकाबले मज़बूत होगा। अन्य शब्दों में वह मुद्रा महँगी हो जाएगी। कच्चे तेल के आयात में उपर्युक्त घटनाचक्र कार्य करता है। कच्चे तेल की कीमत में वृद्धि होने से व्यापारियों को अधिक डॉलर का व्यय करना पड़ता है। परिणामस्वरूप डॉलर की माँग बढ़ जाती है और उसकी कीमत में वृद्धि हो जाती है। यानी एक डॉलर को खरीदने के लिए व्यापारियों को अधिक रुपये की ज़रुरत पड़ती है। फलतः डॉलर मज़बूत एवं रुपये कमज़ोर हो जाता है। 

प्रभाव:-

1. किन्तु, रुपये में गिरावट की वजह से भारतीय वस्तुएँ विदेशों में सस्ती हो जाती हैं और निर्यात में वृद्धि देखने को मिलती है। यह स्थिति एक सुखद चित्र प्रस्तुत करती है। पर जहाँ तक भारतीय अर्थव्यवस्था का सवाल है, वस्तुओं का आयात जिस दर से होता है, उस दर से निर्यात नहीं हो पाता। अतः भारत का चालु खाता घाटा हमेशा ऋणात्मक ही रहता है।

2. भारत में उपभोक्ता मूल्य सूचकांक, मुद्रास्फीति का परिचायक है। इस सूचकांक का मान ज्ञात करने में पेट्रोल, डीजल का भी कुछ प्रतिशत योगदान होता है। कच्चे तेल की कीमत में वृद्धि का सीधा प्रभाव पेट्रोल, डीजल के मूल्य पर पड़ता है। इससे मुद्रास्फीति में वृद्धि होती है, जिसके भुक्तभोगी आम लोग होते हैं। 

3. भारतीय सरकार पेट्रोल, डीजल के उत्पादन में अनुवृत्ति प्रदान करती है, जिसका वहन राजकोष से होता है। कच्चे तेल की मूल्यवृद्धि के सन्दर्भ में राजकोषीय घाटा एक वीभत्स छवि प्रस्तुत करता है। वित्तीय दायित्व एवं बजट प्रबंधन अधिनियम, 2003 के लक्ष्य के अनुरूप राजकोषीय घाटा को सकल घरेलु उत्पाद के 3 प्रतिशत तक सीमित रखना है। अतः सरकार को बढ़ती अनुवृत्ति पर पुनर्विचार करना पड़ सकता है। 

कच्चे तेल के उत्पादन में "गल्फ राष्ट्र" का आधिपत्य है, जिस पर अनेक देश आश्रित हैं। संकट की किसी भी परिस्थिति में सभी व्यापक ढंग से प्रभावित होंगे। अक्षय उर्जा का चयन करके विश्व ने उस दिशा में कदम बढ़ाये हैं, जो भविष्य में कच्चे तेल की वजह से आने वाले किसी भी आकस्मिक संकट के निराकरण में लाभकारी सिद्ध होगा।

Indian Economy- A Historical perspective

Indian economy portrayed a pathetic picture on the eve of independence. Two hundred years of  drudgery under British colonialism had plunged Indian economy into a dilapidated state with productivity abysmally low in agriculture and industrial sector.

The following article throws light on the course of economic reforms undertaken by the government to ameliorate the situation and bolster the Indian economy!! Here, its worth mentioning that political and economic thinkers adopted a "socialist" model of economic system although not as stringent as that of China or Russia. "Nehruvian socialism" allowed co-existence of both public and private sectors, thus giving Indian economy a "mixed" form.

Economic Planning:

Borrowed from Soviet Union, the idea of economic planning was central to the economic reforms of the country. P.C. Mahalanobis is regarded as the "architect of Indian planning". Planning commission was set up in 1950 with focus on economic growth, modernization in terms of technology and social outlook, self-reliance in terms of productivity and equity. "Five year plans" were formulated which focussed primarily on boosting agriculture and industrial growth in initial years.

Agrarian Reforms:

"Land Reforms" and "Land Ceiling Act" are regarded as breakthrough reforms in agriculture sector. It helped reduce socio-economic inequalities and gave a fillip to agricultural productivity. However, loopholes in the implementation curtailed its success. Then came the phase of "Green Revolution" when government laid emphasis on high yielding variety(HYV) of seeds. It made India self-sufficient in food grains but gap between rich and poor farmers widened. The high input costs involved in HYV seeds was beyond the affordability of small and marginal farmers. Moreover, there were inter-regional disparities as not all regions could reap the benefits of green revolution. In order to bridge this gap, subsidies were provided on agriculture inputs such as fertilizers which largely benefitted fertilizer industries and led to environmental degradation.

Industrial Reforms:

"Industrial policy resolution of 1956" which categorized industries into public and private sectors. Privatization was not encouraged so as to protect Indian industries from getting stifled by the hands of competition in its nascent phase only. However, lack of competition led to inefficient productivity. Furthermore, public sector undertakings were incurring huge losses. License system was also introduced for industrial expansion in terms of quantity and product diversification.

In order to promote growth of village and small scale industries, "Karve Committee" was formed. Being labour intensive, it promoted employment and rural development.

LPG Reforms of 1991:

Series of events such as ever dwindling forex reserves, inflation of essential goods and non-payment of external borrowings due to crippled state of Balance of Payments (BoP) plunged India into a crisis like situation. IMF and IBRD agreed to grant loans only on one condition- "New Economic Policy" popularly known as "Liberalisation, Privatisation and Globalisation". Thus, there was liberalisation in trade and investment resulting in greater FDI and FII inflows; deregulation of industries thus ending "permit license raj"; financial sector reforms where role of RBI was enhanced from being a mere regulator to facilitator of banking system; forex reforms where government intervention was drastically reduced in currency devaluation or revaluation; private players encouraged to flourish in diverse sectors of economy to enhance productivity through fair competition thus interlinking Indian economy with global economy.

Thanks to the relentless efforts of our eminent leaders which proved to be fruitful in integrating the crumbling blocks of Indian economy and transforming it into a globally competitive one!! India, today, stands on the threshold of new era where bright opportunities beckons us with twinkling light.

The beautiful words of Jawaharlal Nehru symbolising steadfastness and eternity will act as the beacon light in taking India to the heights of glory in this millenium.

"Woods are lovely, dark and deep;

 But I have promises to keep and 

 Miles to go before I sleep"

Happy reading!!

What Managers think??-Psychology of work place

The boss-employee relationship has never been smooth in any organisation howsoever big or small it may be. Facebook status of such relationships tends to be "its complicated". Being an employee myself, dealing with bosses often leads to mental turbulence amidst monotonous work schedule. Based on my experience and readings, I have tried to depict "Managerial Behaviour" in an organisation in layman's terms.

According to basic management theory given by McGregor, there are two different kinds of managers with extreme assumptions about their subordinates.

Theory X- This is the most negative assumption and most of the time dominates over other theories. The managers assume that employees are lazy and not at all motivated towards their work. They work only out of greed (monetary benefits, promotion, power, fame) or fear (getting penalised!!!). In other words, negative motivation is the guiding force behind accomplishment of assigned tasks. "Self" becomes more important than "committment towards organisational goals". However, such assumptions may not always be true and in such cases, the outcome is ever deteriorating boss-employee relationship further weakening the organisation's fabric. Even the most optimistic and interested employee turns pessimistic and work environment turns loathsome. Weird vibes pervades the atmosphere leading to poor/sub-standard work performance.

Theory Y- The assumptions of the manager under this theory is highly ideal- brimming with optimism. The employees are regarded as driving wheels of an organisation. Thus, given high importance!! They are considered to be motivated (positive motivation) towards organisational goals. Their minds are free from the shackles of greed or fear. Such assumptions create a healthy atmosphere leading to increased work performance implying greater productivity.

Well! in my case, Theory X is quite prominent and hence mental juggle and adrenaline rush have become routine events.

Contrary to the above two theories, William Ouchi, a Japanese propounded Theory Z, the basis for strong Japanese economy.

Theory Z- "Well being" of employees is given top priority apart from providing conducive work environment. Happiness of employees, amicable boss-employee relationship is the essence of this theory. Strong intimate bonds lead to better expression of job complexities leading to fruitful discussions and coming up with better solutions. "Theory Z" being the reason behind success of Japanese economy.

Choosing a management style is pre-requisite to achievment of cherished goals of an organisation. No theory is absolutely good or bad. One must strike a fine balance before applying these theories depending upon what suits the best relative to the then situation. Finally, it's worth mentioning that "Assumptions can be deceptive".

Vicissitudes of global economic history

When we turn back the pages of economic history, we come across major events that have jolted the course of global economic growth. Although, these events were region specific, the ripples of "economic turbulence" could be felt worldwide due to the interlocked nature of balance sheets. Below, I have given a brief account of events which have proved to be a watershed in the history of global economy.

The Great Economic Depression: A major downturn in global economy leading to a prolonged phase of economic recession. A cycle of events which transformed US from "bread basket" to "dust bowl". Skyrocketing production of goods followed by fall in demand resulted in unemployment which inturn resulted in further fall in demand and cycle continued. Let me explain. The US industrialists were among the richest 1% Americans. Remaining population comprised of agriculture labourers and middle class who did not have enough wealth to accommodate increased production due to low agriculture prices and low wages. As a result, demand fell; fall in demand meant fall in price of goods; production of goods was curtailed and yes, less production meant less labour requirement leading to rampant unemployment. More unemployed meant further less demand of goods thus jeopardising the revenue of major industries. Gradually, the industries were put in dilapidated condition with mass closures all around. Consequently, the share prices of industries began to fall. The shareholders/investors began selling all their stocks afraid of perpetually falling stock prices. Mass fall of stock prices resulted in steep fall of stock market indices- commonly called the stock market crash of 1929. The market turned "bearish". It took years to restore normalcy when finally after the second world war, Bretton Woods Agreement led to the establishment of Bretton Woods twins- IMF and World Bank to bolster the global economy.

US sub-prime crisis: Also called the "mortgage crisis" of 2008 was an outcome of popping of the "Asset bubble" largely backed by sub-prime lending. In US, housing (asset) prices were ever increasing. Borrowers with healthy credit history called as "prime borrowers" began mortgaging houses on credit from banks. Banks pooled together the various mortgages into mortgage backed securities or collateralised debt obligations (CDO) with credit ratings assigned to distinguish "safe" and "risky" investment. The institutional investors such as mutual funds, pension funds, hedge funds began investing in the asset backed security/CDO hopeful of getting high returns on investment because of continuous rise in housing prices. Everything seemed alright till date! The problem started when banks began lending sub- prime borrowers with poor credit history. What prompted them to do so?? The belief that even if these borrowers defaulted on credit, houses could be sold to recover the amount (assumption that housing prices would never fall). No step was taken to limit the number of sub-prime borrowers thus widening the basket of risky investment. Initially, there were handful of defaulters but gradually the number multiplied and to such extent that there was more number of houses in the market than buyers!! Remember basic concepts of Microeconomics where excess supply of goods results in fall of prices. The same happened. Soon the asset bubble burst as prices slumped. Further diminution in price was attributed to the fact that prime borrowers refused to pay the interest they were already paying which was higher compared to market conditions and wanted to sell off their housing property. This aggravated the situation leading to crash of major financial institutions in US- the most notable of those being fall of Lehman Brothers, an investment bank turned bankrupt!!

Eurozone crisis: Commonly known as the "sovereign debt crisis" of 2011 which had staged in the backdrop of exorbitantly high sovereign debt by five fragile economies of Europe- Greece, Ireland, Spain, Cyprus and Portugal. The sovereign debt was extensively used to meet high fiscal deficit of the country and bail out of ever worsening banking system. Over a period of time, the size of debt increased to an extent that it was greater than the size of economy as a whole!! Soon, the lenders realised that credit worthiness of government has taken a backseat and feared of credit default. As a result, they categorised the investment as "risky" and charged high yield of returns on debt. Unable to pay off the previous debts due to sluggish economic growth, the government was compelled to take more debts to finance its expenditures and prevent its economy from turning dormant. Thus, the government was caught in the vicious cycle of debt. Capital infusion from International Monetary Fund and European Central Bank proved to be effective in curbing this malady. 

Thanks to the robust monetary policy of Reserve Bank of India backed by strong financial system that helped India withstand economic turmoil in the past. However, the stark reality looming large before us is the mounting NPAs(Non- performing assets). Today, Indian banking system which is regarded as the balancing wheel of financial system is reeling with the problem of bad loans. "Bail out" policies of goverment and bank mergers have been only partially successful. Solving the NPA problem is a herculean task to be accomplished soon, else Indian economy will head towards its doomsday.

Crisis presents two situations- "Danger" and "Opportunity". Choice is ours!!